Coincidence Probability of 2 Geiger–Müller Tubes

Parameters (assumed): independent Poisson arrivals, square pulse width w = 50 μs, count rate per tube 6 counts / min.

Formula

For short pulses the accidental-coincidence rate is approximated by

R_c ≈ 2 · w · R²

where R is the rate in counts per second and w is the pulse width in seconds.

Computed values

Quantity Value
Single-tube rate R 6 counts / min = 0.1 s⁻¹
Pulse width w 50 μs = 50×10⁻⁶ s
Accidental-coincidence rate Rc 1.0×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹
Per minute 6.0×10⁻⁵ per minute
Per hour 0.0036 coincidences / hour
Per day 0.0864 coincidences / day
Per year (365 days) 31.536 coincidences / year

Probability of ≥1 accidental coincidence

Using a Poisson model with mean μ = expected coincidences in the interval:

  • Probability of at least one in a day: 1 − exp(−0.0864) ≈ 0.08277 (≈ 8.28%).
  • Probability of at least one in a year: 1 − exp(−31.536) ≈ 0.99999999999998 (effectively 100%).

Short summary

Accidental coincidence rate ≈ 1.0×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹ (≡ 6.0×10⁻⁵ /min). That gives ≈ 0.0864 per day (≈ one every 11.6 days) and ≈ 31.54 per year. The chance of seeing at least one accidental coincidence in a given day ≈ 8.28%.

Note: result assumes independent Poisson processes and square pulses. Real detectors may have dead-time, non-zero resolving time, or correlated background which change the numbers.